- the war in Ukraine and its economic consequences, mainly including the limited availability of energy resources,
- the response of the global economy to the significant monetary tightening that has already taken place, including strong interest rate hikes in the U.S. and the eurozone, which are likely to continue at least through early 2023,
- A slowdown in global economic growth, in particular possible stagnation in Germany caused by the energy crisis,
- changes in global supply chains, related to reshoring, i.e. moving production closer to markets (nearshoring) and moving production to countries within broad alliance blocs (friendshoring),
- changes in the economic situation in China, where a significant economic recovery reflecting a shift away from zero-covid policies is expected during 2023, which could lead to an increase in global demand, improving growth prospects for the global economy, but at the same time could also become a new source of inflationary pressure,
- changes in climate policy, including the accelerating energy transition and the increasing stringency and importance of environmental requirements.
Outlook
2022 Annual Report
Factors that will affect future financial performance
PKO Bank Polski S.A. notes a growing regulatory risk and a risk of macroeconomic changes. The following external factors may impact the operations and future financial performance of the Bank’s Group.
- the path of further changes in NBP interest rates and the level and interest rate of the reserve requirement,
- the intensity and persistence of external factors driving inflation and regulatory measures aimed at limiting the magnitude of inflation growth,
- economic slow-down resulting from a decline in global demand, high inflation and the tightening of monetary policy,
- migration flows, including their impact on labor supply and aggregate demand in the economy,
- an increase in the burden on the public finance sector due to the cost of protective measures in the face of the energy crisis and expenditure on defense and energy transformation, with uncertainty over the inflow of funds from the European Union under the National Recovery Program,
- the situation in the financial markets, which may reflect, among other things, an increase in geopolitical risks due to a possible escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine,
- the response of the household sector to the increased level of NBP interest rates, including, among other things, the evolution of consumer demand, demand for loans and the ability to service already contracted liabilities,
- extending the effectiveness of certain provisions of the anti-inflationary shield until 30 June 2023, i.e. preferential VAT rates on selected foods, as well as allowances and compensations related to energy prices and sources, and setting a fixed price for the entire year 2023 for certain annual electricity consumption of selected entities,
- amendments to the rules for the implementation of withholding tax (WHT) remitter obligations, in particular: extending to 2023 the exclusion of the application of regulations on mandatory tax withholding by the entity that maintains a securities account or omnibus account (so-called technical remitters), on distributions exceeding PLN 2 million, on receivables from securities recorded in these accounts, as well as relaxing the conditions for the remitter not to withhold flat-rate income tax on selected bond proceeds exempt from withholding tax (repealing the issuer’s obligation to make a representation on exercising due diligence in informing its affiliates of the terms of the tax exemption),
- the authorization for selected taxpayers of the tax on certain financial institutions, including national banks, to reduce the tax base from 1 January 2023 by the value of assets in the form of securities statutorily guaranteed by the State Treasury and by the value of assets resulting from repo/reverse repo transactions specified in the regulations,
- lowering the limits for non-interest costs of consumer loans (fees and commissions) for lending institutions as part of the planned “anti-usury” regulations,
- the risk that the Office for Competition and Consumer Protection (OCCP) will initiate proceedings against the Bank for violating the collective interests of consumers, including, among other things, in the handling of complaints of the so-called unauthorized transactions, proportional reimbursement of loan costs upon early repayment of mortgage loans and the process of handling the statutory credit holidays, as well as the risk of imposing a penalty by the President of the OCCP in proceedings concerning modification clauses in the contractual templates used by the Bank,
- possible further court decisions on the issue of foreign-currency housing loans and PLN loans based on WIBOR rates,
- a possible decision in 2023 to extend the statutory credit holidays to 2024.